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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(13:05) 19-D.Whelan punts 46 yards to ARI 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +3.28 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.34 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP