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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 91

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:40) 12-B.Gillikin punts 58 yards to GB 33, Center-46-A.Brewer. 11-J.Reed to GB 41 for 8 yards (45-D.Gardeck, 32-J.Blount). PENALTY on ARI-32-J.Blount, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at GB 41.

The Three Options

GO -3.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.31 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -3.18 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 48, worth -3.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model