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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 22

Green Bay Packers 31 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(9:32) 44-B.Narveson 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan. ** Injury Update: GB-71-J.Myers has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO +1.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.77 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 22, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP