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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 73

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to CAR 21, Center-49-L.McCullough. 3-R.Blackshear to CAR 33 for 12 yards (26-A.Williams; 51-D.Malone). ATL-29-M.Abernathy was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.05 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 73, worth -4.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.99 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 31, worth -1.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.37 EP