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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 3

Atlanta Falcons 22 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 6-Y.Koo 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 3, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.20 EP