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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 25 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(:10) 6-Y.Koo 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.58 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model