Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 63

Carolina Panthers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 35

(4:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass incomplete short left to 5-Di.Johnson [17-A.Ebiketie].

The Three Options

GO -0.92 EP

What Happened

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.44 EP
53% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.03 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model