Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 10 at the 70

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(12:42) 5-B.Anger punts 38 yards to DET 32, Center-44-T.Sieg, downed by DAL-40-H.Luepke. PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DET 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 70, worth -3.76 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model