Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 20 at the 80

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Detroit Lions 17

(10:27) 5-B.Anger punts 55 yards to DET 25, Center-44-T.Sieg. 11-K.Raymond to DET 31 for 6 yards (29-C.Goodwin).

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 80, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model