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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 29

Dallas Cowboys 3 – Detroit Lions 27

What Actually Happened

(:12) 17-B.Aubrey 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.93 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 29, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +2.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.88 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 39, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model