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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 15

Detroit Lions 34 – Dallas Cowboys 9

What Actually Happened

(5:29) 39-J.Bates 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +1.04 EP
  • 27% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.50 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 15, worth -0.61 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model