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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 5

Dallas Cowboys 9 – Detroit Lions 47

What Actually Happened

(8:07) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right intended for 9-K.Turpin INTERCEPTED by 31-K.Joseph at DET -5. Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +2.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.49 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 5, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.50 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model