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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 22

Houston Texans 14 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(14:33) 15-K.Fairbairn 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.69 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -1.06 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model