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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 52

New England Patriots 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(8:05) 17-B.Baringer punts 43 yards to HOU 9, Center-46-T.Addington, fair catch by 82-S.Sims.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.06 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.60 EP
KICK -1.38 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model