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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 86

Houston Texans 14 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(5:37) 6-T.Townsend punts 65 yards to NE 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-M.Jones pushed ob at NE 49 for 28 yards (43-N.Hewitt). PENALTY on NE-27-M.Dial, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 21.

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.49 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 86, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -2.50 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 44, worth -2.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model