Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 80

New England Patriots 0 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(2:48) 17-B.Baringer punts 54 yards to HOU 26, Center-46-T.Addington. 82-S.Sims to HOU 24 for -2 yards (41-B.Schooler). NE 17-Baringer 23rd consecutive game with a 50-yd punt, longest active streak in NFL.

The Three Options

GO -2.57 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.57 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 80, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model