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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 21

Houston Texans 21 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:00) 15-K.Fairbairn 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.98 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 21, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 31, worth -1.55 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model