Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 11 at the 79

Houston Texans 41 – New England Patriots 21

What Actually Happened

(3:40) 6-T.Townsend punts 39 yards to NE 40, Center-46-J.Weeks. 25-M.Jones to HOU 44 for 16 yards (33-D.Ogunbowale). FUMBLES (33-D.Ogunbowale), ball out of bounds at HOU 44.

The Three Options

GO -2.22 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.28 EP
65% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model