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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 39

New England Patriots 21 – Houston Texans 41

What Actually Happened

(2:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye scrambles up the middle to HOU 33 for 6 yards (27-M.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO +0.26 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.94 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 48, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model