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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 26

New England Patriots 21 – Houston Texans 41

What Actually Happened

(1:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Maye pass short right to 3-D.Douglas to HOU 20 for 6 yards (27-M.Bryant).

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +3.29 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 26, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 36, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP