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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 6-A.Cole punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.34 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 20, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP