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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 1 at the 3

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:40) 74-S.Anderson reported in as eligible. 2-J.Fields scrambles left end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +4.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.16 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 3, worth +0.39 EP
KICK +2.16 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.45 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model