4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 12

What Actually Happened

(:04) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep left.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +0.90 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 52, worth -0.74 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.97 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 15, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.50 EP