Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 12

What Actually Happened

(11:07) 6-A.Cole punt is BLOCKED by 49-J.Moon, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, recovered by LV-29-C.Smith at LV 13. 29-C.Smith to LV 9 for -4 yards (31-B.Bishop).

The Three Options

GO -1.99 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.86 EP
74% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model