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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 19 at the 19

Pittsburgh Steelers 12 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:24) 9-C.Boswell 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.46 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 19, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.48 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model