Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 15

(7:48) 6-A.Cole punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.27 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.15 EP
59% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model