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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 11 at the 56

Pittsburgh Steelers 22 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:25) 8-C.Waitman punts 43 yards to LV 13, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 8-A.Abdullah MUFFS catch, and recovers at LV 13.

The Three Options

GO -1.02 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model