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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 9

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 29

What Actually Happened

(4:59) (Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass short right to 83-K.Wilkerson for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.35 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.70 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model