4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 18 at the 18

Pittsburgh Steelers 29 – Las Vegas Raiders 13

What Actually Happened

(3:59) 9-C.Boswell 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-8-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 18, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 28, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model