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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 5 at the 65

Las Vegas Raiders 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 32

What Actually Happened

(2:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.O'Connell pass incomplete deep middle to 19-D.Turner (48-A.Ogundeji).

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.92 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 65, worth -1.57 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model