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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 17

San Francisco 49ers 13 – Seattle Seahawks 0

What Actually Happened

(2:36) 35-M.Wright 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-3-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.03 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 17, worth -0.67 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 27, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model