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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 2 at the 2

Seattle Seahawks 0 – San Francisco 49ers 16

What Actually Happened

(:03) 5-J.Myers 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The Three Options

GO +3.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.92 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 2, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.94 EP
What Happened
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP