4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 50

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Seattle Seahawks 10

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 44 yards to SEA 6, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-10-R.Bell.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.91 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.61 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 14, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP