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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 3 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Seattle Seahawks 17

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-M.Wishnowsky punts 49 yards to SEA 18, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-50-J.Graham. San Francisco challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1.)

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.34 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 67, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.28 EP
What Happened
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 25, worth -1.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP