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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 9 at the 9

Seattle Seahawks 17 – San Francisco 49ers 29

What Actually Happened

(1:49) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 16-T.Lockett for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.91 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 9, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model