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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 10 at the 51

Seattle Seahawks 24 – San Francisco 49ers 36

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 87-N.Fant ran ob at SF 39 for 12 yards (2-D.Lenoir).

The Three Options

GO -0.27 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +1.71 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 51, worth -1.27 EP
KICK -0.33 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model