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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Seattle Seahawks
4th & 10 at the 39
Seattle Seahawks 24 – San Francisco 49ers 36
What Actually Happened
(:20) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete deep right.
The Three Options
GO
+0.26 EP
What Happened
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +1.49 EP
- 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 39, worth -0.34 EP
KICK
+1.43 EP
Model's Pick
- 56% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.85 EP
- 44% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 48, worth -0.39 EP
PUNT
+0.00 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.18 EP
