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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 13

Washington Commanders 34 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 3-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +3.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.12 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.82 EP