Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 11 at the 71

Carolina Panthers 7 – Washington Commanders 40

(2:44) 10-J.Hekker punts 47 yards to WAS 24, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-84-F.Franks.

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.43 EP
68% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.37 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model