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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 59

Carolina Panthers 0 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 10-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to WAS 10, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.97 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -3.41 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model