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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 15 at the 51

Washington Commanders 10 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(:41) 10-T.Way punts 40 yards to CAR 11, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 83-D.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.63 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.74 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.10 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model