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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 9 at the 51

Minnesota Vikings 10 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(11:31) 17-R.Wright punts 34 yards to DET 17, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.58 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 51, worth -1.53 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model