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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 67

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(12:36) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 42-J.Reeves-Maybin. 42-J.Reeves-Maybin right end to DET 34 for 1 yard (44-J.Metellus; 30-C.Ham).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.76 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.58 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 25, worth -1.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model