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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 11 at the 47

Detroit Lions 28 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(10:19) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to MIN 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-29-K.Vildor.

The Three Options

GO -0.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.33 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 47, worth -2.61 EP
KICK -0.91 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.42 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 13, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model