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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 63

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(10:18) 3-J.Fox punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-49-H.Hatten, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.41 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 63, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model