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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 26

Detroit Lions 28 – Minnesota Vikings 29

What Actually Happened

(:19) 39-J.Bates 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +1.98 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 26, worth -0.13 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 36, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model