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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 65

Detroit Lions 0 – Minnesota Vikings 10

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 3-J.Fox punts 55 yards to MIN 10, Center-49-H.Hatten. 4-B.Powell to MIN 20 for 10 yards (53-T.Nowaske).

The Three Options

GO -1.78 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +0.72 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 65, worth -4.17 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -2.36 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 23, worth -2.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP