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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 41

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(12:04) 11-C.Dicker 59 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO -0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.42 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • 59% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.17 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.99 EP
PUNT -0.75 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 12, worth -0.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model