4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 55

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(1:52) 12-B.Gillikin punts 44 yards to LAC 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 15-L.McConkey.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.60 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model