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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 10 at the 32

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(:03) 11-C.Dicker 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +0.77 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.59 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 32, worth -0.06 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 42, worth -0.19 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model